Zitto na Demokrasia

Zitto na Demokrasia

Posts Tagged ‘Tanzania

Kwanini Bei ya mafuta kwa walaji haishuki kwa kasi?

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Kwanini Bei ya mafuta kwa walaji haishuki kwa kasi?

EWURA

 

Kuanzia Mwezi Julai mwaka 2014 mpaka Desemba, bei ya mafuta ghafi imekuwa ikishuka kutoka $110 kwa pipa mpaka $56 kwa pipa. Mporomoko huu wa bei wa zaidi ya 40% haujaleta unafuu kwa mtumiaji wa kawaida wa mafuta ikiwemo wenye daladala na kupelekea nauli za usafiri wa umma kupungua. Leo bado bei ya mafuta kwenye vituo vya mafuta ni tshs 2029 kwa Petroli na 1909 kwa dizeli, bei ambayo ni karibia ile ile kwa miezi michache iliyopita.

EWURA,inasemekana, wamesema kuwa bei za hapa nchini hushuka baada ya miezi 2 kwa sababu waagizaji huagiza kwa ujumla mafuta mengi zaidi na hivyo kutofaidika na punguzo la bei. Hata hivyo bei zimeanza kushuka toka mwezi Julai na hatujashuhudia unafuu wowote kwa wananchi. Ingekuwa bei ya mafuta imepanda tungeona bei zimepanda mara moja na sababu za kununua ‘ bulky’ huwa hazitolewi.

Ni kweli kwamba Tanzania hununua mafuta yaliyosafishwa na hivyo bei inayoshuka sio hiyo. Lakini hao wasafishaji hununua mafuta ghafi yenye bei ndogo hivi sasa kwa hiyo ni dhahiri lazima bei za pampu zipungue. Vile vile ni kweli kwamba thamani ya shilingi ya Tanzania imeporomoka hivyo wananchi hawawezi kuona unafuu wa bei ya mafuta kwa sababu hununuliwa kwa fedha za kigeni na kuuzwa kwa Sarafu yetu. Hata hivyo kasi ya kushuka kwa bei ya mafuta ni 40% wakati shilingi imeshuka kwa chini ya 10%. Katika hali ya kawaida na kwa kutumia mfumo wa kukokotoa bei wa EWURA, angalau bei ya mafuta ingeshuka kwa kati ya 15% and 25%.

Ni dhahiri mamlaka za nchi na hasa EWURA wanapaswa kueleza kwa umma ni Kwanini bei za mafuta hazishuki kulingana na bei ya bidhaa hiyo katika soko la Dunia. Wananchi wana haki ya kujua na kama hakuna Maelezo basi bei hizo zishuke na wananchi wafaidike na punguzo hilo.

Zitto Kabwe, Mb

 

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January 4, 2015 at 2:12 PM

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Tanzanian Mining companies migrating to the Mining Act 2010 and a Lusaka revolution

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Tanzanian Mining companies migrating to the Mining Act 2010 and a Lusaka revolution

Judge Mark Bomani (Bomani Commission)

Judge Mark Bomani (Bomani Commission)

This weekend Tanzanians were informed (viaThe East African- Tanzania seals new tax deal with mining firms) of the decision reached by ministry of energy and minerals and one of the giant mining company in the country, Geita Gold Mine, that new royalty rates will be applicable. The agreement includes scrapping of the 15% provision on the unredeemed capital expenditure allowance given to mining companies through their contracts. This provision was a fundamental reason why mining companies were not paying corporate tax since they started operation. It was as well one of the argument raised in Buzwagi motion during 9th Parliament. I welcome this move as it is the implementation of the recommendations of Bomani mining review commission.

The new royalty rates of 4% gross value from 3% net back value was supposed to be implemented since the new mining legislation was enacted in 2010. Mining companies resisted to migrate to new law although they were paying new rates in protest. Amending the mineral development agreements (MDAs) to effect the new rates including service levy to local government authorities is a positive step forward.

However, as a country we still generate peanuts from mining sector. With mineral exports valuing US$ 1.7 billions, revenues ( royalty, taxes and other levies) to government coffers averages only $150 millions. Largest source of revenues are royalty and employees taxes ( PAYE). We must think outside the box and introduce fiscal measures that maximizes government revenues without negatively impacting investments. Scrapping abuse prone corporation tax is one of the way to go. Zambia was thinking of this idea by introducing higher royalty rates.

Royalty, which is tax deductables, charged on gross production assures governments of revenues and easier to monitor any abuses. It is not subject to excessive tax planning measures done by multinationals and addresses the challenge of base erosion and profit shifting. Companies will be forced to cut down unnecessary costs and completely ends habit of inflating investments expenditures in order to declare losses.

Zambia, knowingly or unknowingly, might have started a revolution never to stop. A new model of taxing extractive sector in the offing. This is the beginning of the end of the corporate tax regime in extractive industry and it is a welcome move.

The Challenge

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The Challenge

Yes. A beautiful country
People lovely
Rich naturally
Poverty deeply.

No. Loose-lipped beings
Know everything
Understand nothing
Living Depending.

They say Ujamaa
Created dependency
And laziness
And subjectry,

I say politicians
Taking liberties.
And ruling over
Till folks take responsibility.

Those in power
Those wanting Power
Use same ways,
Lies, manipulations.

Suppressed critics
Branded courageous
Liars rule
Manipulators lie in waiting.

Truth The Challenge.
Integrity The Challenge.
Honesty The Challenge.
To inspire to differ,
The Challenge.

Written by zittokabwe

September 26, 2014 at 1:42 PM

Gesi si mwarobaini wa umasikini, kazi shambani

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Gesi si mwarobaini wa umasikini, kazi shambani
Zitto Kabwe
Toleo la 367  20 Aug 2014
Rais Kikwete na Waziri Muhongo
TANZANIA kama ilivyo kwa Bara la Afrika ni miongoni mwa nchi zenye uchumi unaokua kwa kasi. Inakadiriwa kwamba kati ya mwaka 2012 mpaka 2017 katika nchi kumi zenye uchumi unaokua kwa kasi zaidi, sita zitakuwa zinatoka Bara la Afrika. Tanzania ni moja ya nchi hizo, nyingine ni Rwanda, Angola, Chad, Ethiopia na Equatorial Guinea.

Angola, Equatorial Guinea na Chad kasi yao ya kukuza uchumi inasukumwa na utajiri mkubwa wa mafuta na gesi. Hata hivyo, nchi hizi zipo chini katika viwango vya kidemokrasia na utajiri wa maliasili zao umekuwa ukinufaisha watu wachache. Kwa mfano, huko Angola na Equatorial Guinea, ni familia za marais wao (waliokaa madarakani kwa zaidi ya miongo mitatu) na familia za karibu na watawala ndizo zinanufaika na uchumi wa nchi zao.

Hali ya ufukara wa wananchi katika nchi hizo hauwiani na mapato makubwa ambayo serikali zao zimekuwa zikipata kutoka katika mafuta na gesi asilia.

Nchini Rwanda, sekta ya huduma ndio inayoendesha uchumi ingawa mwaka jana wameweza kuvuka lengo la asilimia tano ya kasi ya kukua kwa sekta ya kilimo. Rwanda nao, licha ya mafanikio makubwa katika kutokomeza umasikini (theluthi ya wananchi wameondoka kwenye dimbwi la umasikini ndani ya miaka kumi, 2000 – 2010), bado kuna malalamiko makubwa ya utawala wa kiimla nchini humo.

Kwamba hakuna uhuru wa habari na Serikali ya Rais Paul Kagame inakandamiza sauti za upinzani. Je, mtawala wa imla mwenye kuleta ahueni kwa wananchi ni afadhali kuliko mtawala wa kidemokrasia mwenye kukuza umasikini? Hili ni swali ambalo wanazuoni wana majibu yanayotofautiana kwa kila hali.

Sekta ya Kilimo ikikua kwa kasi ya asilimia tano na kuendelea kwa miaka mitano mfululizo, inaweza kupunguza umasikini kwa zaidi ya asilimia 30 katika kipindi hicho. Ethiopia, kasi yake ya ukuaji wa uchumi inachochewa na sekta ya kilimo pamoja na sekta ya viwanda. Iwapo Ethiopia itaendelea na kasi ya ukuaji wa uchumi wa zaidi ya asilimia saba kwa mwaka, unaosukumwa na kilimo na viwanda, basi baada ya miaka 10 nchi hiyo itakuwa ‘power house’ ya Bara la Afrika.

Kama Rwanda, Ethiopia pia imeweza kutokomeza umasikini kwa kasi katika kipindi cha muongo mmoja uliopita, vile vile, kama Rwanda, uongozi wa Waziri Mkuu Meles Zenawi (sasa marehemu) umekuwa ukilalamikiwa kwa utawala wa kiimla licha ya mafanikio makubwa katika maendeleo ya kilimo na viwanda.

Tanzania haijaanza uzalishaji wa kiwango kikubwa wa rasilimali ya gesi na mafuta (ukiacha uzalishaji kidogo katika visima vya Songosongo), lakini sekta zinazoendesha ukuaji wa uchumi wake ni madini, mawasiliano na utalii. Kiwango cha umasikini nchini kimeshuka kutoka asilimia 37 mwaka 2003 mpaka asilimia 28 mwaka 2013. Kasi ya kutokomeza umasikini bado ni ndogo ukilinganisha na mataifa haya niliyoyataja hapo juu.

Midomoni mwa watawala wa Tanzania ni kwamba gesi asilia ndio mkombozi kwa sasa. Ngonjera hizo hizo zilikuwa zikiimbwa pale Tanzania ilipoingia kwenye uzalishaji mkubwa wa dhahabu. Wakati huo, Waziri wa sasa wa Nishati na Madini ndiye aliyekuwa Mwenyekiti wa Shirika la STAMICO ambalo liliachia migodi yake yote na kuwapa wawekezaji kutoka nje kwa nyimbo kwamba dhahabu itaondoa umasikini wetu. Miaka 17 sasa, ufukara wa wananchi upo pale pale na santuri imegeuzwa na sasa inaimba gesi asilia na Watanzania, wasomi na wasio wasomi wanacheza na kupiga makofi.

Nilimsikia Waziri wa Nishati na Madini akiwaeleza viongozi wa dini nchini mwanzoni mwa mwaka huu, mbele ya Rais Jakaya Kikwete kwamba; “tumelima wee, bado tu masikini. Tumefanya biashara, bado tu masikini. Sasa gesi imekuja, ndio mwarobaini wa umasikini”.

Nilitaraji Rais aliposimama kuzungumza angeweza kuweka maelezo sawia, lakini nadhani alishindwa kumsahihisha waziri wake mbele ya hadhara ile. Lakini pia inawezekana ndio msimamo wa serikali kuwapa matumaini wananchi kwamba ‘umasikini sasa basi’.

Gesi asilia hata igunduliwe kila kona ya nchi haitaweza kuondoa ufukara wa wananchi. Ingekuwa ni hivyo leo Nigeria ingekuwa taifa lenye watu wenye maendeleo kuliko mataifa mengi duniani. Lakini Nigeria bado, licha ya kuwa na uchumi mkubwa zaidi Afrika, ina watu mafukara wa kutupwa.

Pato la mwananchi wa Nigeria ni chini ya dola za Marekani 1,500 kwa mwaka, yaani ni nusu tu ya nchi kama Mauritius isiyo na chembe ya mafuta. Mifano ya Angola, Equatorial Guinea na Gabon inatosha kabisa kuwakumbusha watawala wetu kwamba mafuta au gesi asilia ni mwarobaini wa umasikini.

Nchi zote hizi hazijafanikiwa kwa sababu ya ufisadi mkubwa unaotokana na usiri katika mikataba ya madini, mafuta na gesi asilia. Hapa Tanzania mikataba yote hiyo bado ni siri na matokeo yake ni upotevu mkubwa wa fedha tunaotarajia kushuhudia kutokana na mikataba mibovu.

Tayari mkataba uliovuja wa kampuni ya StatOil umeonyesha kuwa Tanzania itapoteza shilingi trilioni moja na bilioni 600 kila mwaka kwa miaka 15, katika kitalu kimoja tu (block 2). Hatujui mikataba mingine 26 hali ikoje maana yenyewe haijavuja.

Mwarobaini wa umasikini ni kazi

Tanzania imejaribu kila aina ya mipango ya maendeleo. Miaka takribani 25 ya mwanzo wa Uhuru wetu tumeitumia kujenga taifa la kijamaa.

Katika mapumziko yangu ya mwisho wa wiki, wiki hii iliyokwisha nilikuwa nasoma uchambuzi kuhusu utekelezaji wa vijiji vya ujamaa. Katika kitabu kimoja cha Andrew Coulson (Political Economy of Tanzania) ameainisha namna Dola ilivyoamua kusukuma yenyewe maendeleo.

Mmoja wa vijana wa wakati huo, Juma Mwapachu (sasa balozi mstaafu) alinukuliwa akiandika; “Nchi haiwezi kuacha raia wake wakiishi maisha ya kifo – life of death. Jioni ya Jumamosi nilikutana na Balozi Mwapachu nikamuuliza, unaweza kuandika tena vile? Akasema kwa ujasiri kabisa, “ndio mwanangu.”

Dola ilidhamiria kweli kweli. Dola iliamini kwa dhati kabisa kwamba inalo jukumu la kuchochea maendeleo. Utekelezaji wa ujamaa uliendana na makosa mengi ya uharibifu wa mali na hata ukiukwaji wa haki za binadamu. Lakini dhamira ilikuwa kazi– kuongeza tija kwenye uzalishaji mali, viwandani na mashambani.

Miaka 25 iliyofuatia Tanzania ikahamia kutekeleza sera za soko huria na kuitoa dola kwenye kusukuma maendeleo ya watu wake. Bahati mbaya, soko huria likawa soko holela kutokana na kukosekana mipango ya kidola ya kusawazisha makosa ya soko.

Nimebahatika kushiriki katika baraza kubwa zaidi nchini, Bunge, tena nikiwa Mwenyekiti wa Kamati inayotazama matumizi yetu (postmorterm) kwa miaka yote isipokuwa miwili ya mwanzo. Nimebahatika kuwa kiongozi mwandamizi katika chama kimojawapo kikuu cha siasa nchini.

Nafasi zote hizo nimezishika nikiwa kijana mdogo. Sijaona ushahidi wowote kwamba taifa lilijiandaa kutoka mfumo wa uchumi wa kijamaa kwenda uchumi wa soko huria. Ndani ya Bunge na ndani ya vikao vya vyama vya siasa hakuna mijadala inayohusu maendeleo ya watu, zaidi ya namna gani ya kuendelea kushika dola au namna gani ya kupata dola.

Ndio maana tunashuhudia kwenye mikutano ya vyama na hasa nyakati za uchaguzi wanasiasa wakihubiri mrengo mmoja wa maendeleo (soko huria) na kushindanisha orodha ya miradi badala ya kushindanisha maono (visions) na itikadi za kimaendeleo.

Ninapojisomea zaidi naona kama tulikurupuka, tukaachana na ujamaa na mazuri yake na mabaya yake na kukumbatia ubepari bila kuchukua hadhari kuhusu mabaya yake. Wale wale waliokuwa wanahubiri ujamaa ndio wakaanza kuhubiri uzuri wa soko huria.

Ngonjera zilezile, matokeo yake ni umasikini kuongezeka maradufu, tofauti ya walio nacho na wasionacho kuendelea kupanuka. Tulipotupilia mbali dhana ya uzalishaji mali mashambani na viwandani, tukakumbatia uchuuzi. Sasa tumekuwa taifa la wachuuzi. Uchuuzi hauzalishi kazi nyingi na pasipo na kazi ufukara hushamiri.

Mipango ipi inafaa kutuondoa katika dimbwi la ufukara? Kamwe tusidhani utajiri wa gesi asilia utatutoa. Utajiri huu utaongeza pengo la wenye nacho na wasio nacho kwa sababu mipango ya sasa ya uchumi imewekwa kwenye nguzo ya mwenye nguvu ndiye anafaidika.

Nguvu inatokana na taarifa (information is power) na taarifa kwa nchi kama yetu zinazaa vipato nyemelezi (rent seeking) ambazo zinanufaisha wachache. Ndivyo imetokea kwenye sekta ya madini na mawasiliano, ambapo wenye taarifa ndio wamefaidika na wananchi wengi na hasa vijana wamebakia wapagazi wa wenye taarifa (rent seekers).

Hawa kina Mwapachu, vijana wa zamani, walikuwa wanaimbishwa kuwa kazi ni kipimo cha utu. Mipango ya kutuondoa kwenye ufukara ni mipango ambayo imejikita kwenye nguzo zinazozalisha kazi na maarifa ya kufanya kazi.

Kwa sasa kazi ambazo zitanufaisha Watanzania wengi ni kazi za kilimo. Kilimo sio kazi ya shambani tu, ni pamoja na mnyororo wake wa thamani (value chain). Sera ya ujamaa ilijenga viwanda vya kuongeza thamani mazao ya kilimo. Kulikuwa kuna kiwanda cha nguo katika kila kanda ya Tanzania na kiwanda kikubwa cha nyuzi Tabora bila kutaja ginneries (vinu vya uchambuaji) zilizozagaa vijijini.

Sera ya ujamaa ilijenga viwanda vya kubangua korosho 12 katika wilaya zote zinazozalisha zao hilo. Sera yetu mpya ya nusu ya pili ya miaka ya Uhuru imefanya nini? ‘deindustrialisation’ kwa jina la ubinafsishaji.

Nilikwenda kukagua viwanda vya korosho mwaka 2012, kama Mwenyekiti wa Kamati ya Posmortem (PAC), nilikuta viwanda vyote vimegeuzwa kuwa maghala ya kuhifadhi korosho. Nilikwenda mji mdogo wa Choma huko Igunga- mkoani Tabora, nilikuta iliyokuwa ginnery (kiwanda cha kuchambua pamba) kimetelekezwa na mwekezaji.

Korosho yetu yote tunayouza nje hivi sasa ni korosho ghafi, tunahamishia ajira India tunapouza korosho yetu nyingi. Tunauza marobota ya pamba na kuagiza mashati na suruali tunazovaa na kujidai mitaani. Hakika hakuna umazwazwa (ujuha) zaidi ya huu. Hebu tujadili, ujamaa ulikosea wapi? Mbona sera hizi mpya ndizo zinatutia ufukara zaidi?

Nilisoma nikiwa darasa la nne, ‘kama unataka mali, utayapata shambani’. Ujamaa ulitaka kazi. Waliotekeleza Azimio la Arusha hawakutaka kazi, fursa ilipofika wakatupilia mbali Azimio. Lakini bado nchi ipo pale pale au imekuwa mbaya zaidi. Turudi kwenye misingi. Hakuna namna! Tuutafakari kwa kina na kwa kukosoa ujamaa. Tutafakari kwa kina na kukosoa sera za sasa. Kisha tuunde kitu kipya. Miaka 50 inatosha kutakafakari majaribio yetu.

– See more at: http://www.raiamwema.co.tz/gesi-si-mwarobaini-wa-umasikini-kazi-shambani#sthash.X1qbO5iU.Mw88XujN.dpuf

Written by zittokabwe

August 22, 2014 at 1:25 PM

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MKATABA WA GESI WA STATOIL NA TANZANIA

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MKATABA WA GESI WA STATOIL NA TANZANIA

Swali kwa TPDC: Kwanini Makubaliano ni tofauti na Mkataba Elekezi (Model PSA)?

Baada ya kuvuja kwa Mkataba wa kutafuta na kuzalisha Gesi Asilia (PSA) kati ya Serikali kupitia TPDC na Kampuni ya Norway ya StatOil na baada ya baadhi ya wachambuzi kuhoji kuhusu mkataba huo, Shirika la TPDC limetoa maelezo yake. Sio mara moja, sasa ni mara ya tatu. Kimsingi TPDC wanasema wachambuzi waliochambua nyongeza hiyo ya Mkataba hawana uelewa wa mambo haya na wanaleta siasa. Nadhani ni muhimu TPDC wakajikita katika kueleza kwa lugha ambayo wananchi wa kawaida wataelewa badala ya kusingizia uelewa wa watu katika masuala haya. Wizara ya Nishati na Madini haina uelewa wa pekee wa masuala ya Mafuta na Gesi kama wanavyotaka umma uamini. Kuna watanzania wengi tu wenye kufuatilia mambo haya na wenye uwezo mpana hasa katika masuala ya kodi katika tasnia hii. Ni wajibu wa TPDC kutoa maelezo yasiyo changanya wananchi na bora zaidi waweke mikataba hii ya Gesi na Mafuta wazi. Maelezo yaliyotolewa na TPDC mpaka sasa hayaeleweki na yana lengo la kuwachanganya wananchi kama sio kuwaongopea.

Swali la Msingi

Serikali kupitia “Model PSA” imeweka viwango vya mgawanyo wa mapato kati ya Mwekezaji na nchi. Viwango hivi ni vya mgawo wa mafuta au gesi asilia yanayozalishwa kwa siku. Mkataba huu elekezi upo kwenye tovuti ya Shirika la TPDC na ndio mwongozo wa majadiliano kwa mikataba yote. Kwa mujibu wa Mkataba huu elekezi uzalishaji wa gesi asilia unapokuwa wa chini kabisa (0 –249.999 MMscf kwa siku) mgawo kati ya Tanzania na Mwekezaji unakuwa ni nusu kwa nusu (50 – 50 ) baada ya mwekezaji kuondoa gharama zake zote za uzalishaji.

Iwapo uzalishaji umefikia hali ya juu kabisa ( 1500 MMscf na zaidi) mgawo wa Tanzania unakuwa asilimia 80 na Mwekezaji asilimia 20. Mwekezaji anaruhusiwa kuchukua mpaka asilimia 70 ya Gesi iliyozalishwa kufidia gharama za uzalishaji. Hivyo, kinachogawanywa ni asilimia 30 zinazobakia.

Mkataba uliovuja ( TPDC na StatOil hawajaukanusha) unaonyesha kuwa kiwango cha chini kabisa cha uzalishaji Serikali inapata asilimia 30 tu na Mwekezaji asilimia 70 licha ya kwamba tayari gharama zake keshajirudishia. Vile vile kiwango cha juu kabisa cha uzalishaji mgawo unakuwa sawa kwa sawa! Swali la msingi hapa ni, Kwanini makubaliano na kampuni hii ya StatOil yanaenda tofauti na Mkataba elekezi? Je, mikataba yote 26 imekwenda harijojo namna hii? Maswali haya bado hayajajibiwa na TPDC.

Tuelewe

Mkataba wa Gesi Asilia au Mafuta ni makubaliano ya kugawana mapato yanayotokana na kiwango kilichozalishwa. Katika maelezo yao TPDC wanaeleza kuhusu kodi ya mapato, mrahaba na kodi ya huduma. Kodi ya Mapato na kodi ya huduma ni kodi ambazo kila mfanyabiashara nchini anapaswa kulipa. Ikumbukwe kuwa imechukua miaka 20 na kelele nyingi sana mpaka kampuni za Madini kuanza kulipa kodi ya mapato na ushuru wa huduma. Mpaka leo hii bado Halmashauri za Geita na Kahama zinahangaika na kampuni za Madini kulipwa ushuru huu. Kampuni za Madini na za Mafuta hutumia mikakati ya kupanga kukwepa kodi (tax planning measures) kwa kutumia Tax Havens na Mikataba ya Double Taxation Treaties. Hivyo TPDC kusema tutegemee kodi ya Mapato ni sawa na kuimba kama kasuku na baada ya miaka 20 tutajikuta kwenye lawama zile zile za sekta ya Madini. Kwenye baadhi ya mikataba, kodi wanayolipa wawekezaji hukatwa kwenye mgawo wa TPDC na hivyo kodi hiyo hulipwa na TPDC na sio Mwekezaji kama tunavyoaminishwa na Serikali.

Kuhusu mrahaba wa asilimia 5 napo kuna tatizo kwani kwenye mikataba ya Gesi Asilia Mrahaba unalipwa na TPDC maana ndio mwenye leseni na sio Mwekezaji ambaye ni kandarasi tu. Mikataba kadhaa imeandikwa kwa namna ambayo Mwekezaji akilipa mrahaba, anajirudishia kwenye mapato ya Gesi kama gharama. Hivyo kimsingi mapato yetu ya uhakika ni kwenye mgawo wa uzalishaji. Ndio maana tunapiga kelele kuhusu mkataba huu wa StatOil kwenda kinyume na Mkataba mwelekezi wa Serikali.

Tutaambulia kiduchu sana

Kwa kuchambua Mkataba huu kati ya Tanzania na StatOil ya Norway hesabu zinaonyesha kuwa Nchi yetu itapata mgawo kiduchu sana. Chukulia uniti 1000 za gesi asilimia zimezalishwa kwa siku. Uniti 700 zinachukuliwa na Mwekezaji kufidia gharama za kuzalisha gesi hiyo na Uniti 300 zinazobakia Mwekezaji anachukua uniti 150 kama mgawo wake wa faida (profit gas). Hivyo Tanzania itabakia na uniti 150 tu kama mgawo wake, sawa na 15% tu ya Gesi Asilia yote iliyozalishwa katika siku hiyo. Iwapo Mkataba elekezi ungefuatwa Tanzania ingebakia na uniti 240 sawa na 24% ya gesi asilia iliyozalishwa.

Natoa rai kwa vyombo vya habari nchini kuandika masuala haya bila kuyumba maana yanahusu utajiri wa nchi yetu. Dhahabu imebakia mashimo kwa sababu Tanzania ililala na watawala kuandika mikataba ya hovyo. Tusilale kwenye Gesi Asilia. Wakati wa kutaka mikataba kuwa wazi ni sasa. Huu mmoja tu wa StatOil tunaweza kupoteza shilingi 1.6 trilioni, hiyo mingine 26 je? Nchi itabakia kweli? Tusikubali majibu mepesi. Tutake mikataba iwekwe wazi. Uwazi huleta uwajibikaji.

Zitto Kabwe, Mb

17 Julai, 2014

 

Power balances under S3z Union

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Power balances under S3z Union

Zitto Kabwe

In the ongoing constitutional making process discussions have centred on the structure of the Union. While pro status quo are calling for continuation of the two tier structure of the Union whereby Executives of Union and that of Tanganyika are merged and a separate of executive for Zanzibar, pragmatic pro reforms are after one executive for each Union partner and a Union Executive for Union matters. Chambi Chachage is for the former with strong argument based on power relations and that the Tanganyika Executive will eventually dominate the the small partner and kill the union itself. He writes “My bone of contention remains: How do we ensure the distribution and separation power between and within three layers of executive, judiciary and legislature without breaking the Union”?  He concludes “Power analysis can thus help us structure our union in a sustainable way. Our public debate must involve it. Ultimately, it is the people who decides. But it is the structures that determine to what extent such decisions would be sustained. Let us speak truth to power”[1]. And i totally agree with him that we analyse power relations created by the proposed structure, similarly by any Union structure that we will end up with. Moreover i agree with him that regardless of the fact that constitution is legal matter but any decision will be inhrently political.

About Power Joseph Nye writes “…power is hard to measure. But that is also true of love, and we do not doubt its reality simply because we cannot say we love someone 1.7 times more than someone else. Like love (and leadership), power is a relatioship whose strength and domain will vary with different contexts.Those with more power in a relationship are better palced to make and resist change”[2]. Empirical studies have shown that the more powerful are less likely to take on the perspectives of others. Power is influence. Power is control, be it hard or soft. Be it through coercion or pursuation. The improved three tier Union structure (S3z as proponents call it, z standing for ‘zilizoboreshwa’) will face power relations that must be comprehended not only by its supporters but also its critics.

Power equilibrium must be achieved. Because power operates both relationally and reciprocally, sociologists speak of the balance of power between parties to a relationship: all parties to all relationships have some power: the sociological examination of power concerns itself with discovering and describing the relative strengths: equal or unequal, stable or subject to periodic change. Sociologists usually analyse relationships in which the parties have relatively equal or nearly equal power in terms of constraint rather than of power. Thus ‘power’ has a connotation of unilateralism. If this were not so, then all relationships could be described in terms of ‘power’, and its meaning would be lost. Given that power is not innate and can be granted to others, to acquire power you must possess or control a form of power currency[3].[7] Hereunder i describe the power structures of the proposed three tier Union for analysis.

S3z is centred on Tanzania being a one sovereign state headed by One Head of State called the President of the United Republic of Tanzania. The President will have an exclusive authority on all Union matters and henceforth apart being a head of state but also will be an executive head of the Union Government. Together with his/her Union Cabinet, the President will be assisted by two Vice Presidents one of whom a head of Government of Tanganyika with executive powers on all non union matters in Tanganyika and the other one a head of Government of Zanzibar with executive powers on all non union matters in Zanzibar. Thus, the Presidency comprises the President and the two Vice Presidents. Only the President will be directly elected by the people and must obtain atleast 50% + 1 ofall votes casted and not less than a third of the valid votes from each Partner state. The Prime Minister of Zanzibar and that of Tanganyika will come from a political party with majority in Zanzibar House of Representatives and that of Tanganyika. That means, the party with majority in House of Representatives of Tanganyika will form the Government of Tanganyika, similarly for Zanzibar.

Definately there must be legislatures for Union, Zanzibar and Tanganyika. It is proposed that the Union Parliament (Bunge) be a joint sitting of both houses of representatives. Bunge will legislate on matters on the Union List which will be implemented by Union Government and on concurrent matters implementation of which to be done by partner governments. This means Union matters will be exclusively legislated by Bunge, concurrent matters legislated by Bunge but enforced by partners and the remaining (non union and non concurrent) exclusively legislated by partners. With this the balance of power will be striked. As for Judiciary, already in Tanzania we have separate jurisdictions for partners and only the Court of Appeal is a Union matter. However Court of Appeal shall be replaced by Supreme Court which will be a Union Court and a court of last instance for matters to be decided by the Constitution or specific legislations.

This briefly described structure can be analysed and improved or discarded. Heads of Government of Zanzibar and Tanganyika being part of the Union Cabinet and the legislatures of both partners being Union legislatures tries to strike this balance of power. The Union Finance Minister through Union Revenue Authority will collect taxes except those not mentioned in the list of Union matters, maintain what is needed to run the Union Government and distribute to partners what remains. This is a more clear structure with checks and balances inbuilt. Most importantly this structure gives partners their autonomy while maintaining a strong union. List of Union matters shall be the list agreed in 1964 as provided for in the articles of the Union and concurrent matters must be agreed amongst partners and be included in the new constitution as a second schedule.

When conflicts occurs, Government of Zanzibar will be able to discuss the matter with Government of Tanganyika coordinated by Union Government. Currently when Zanzibar raise an issue it meets the Union as the partner is nowhere to be seen. S3z ends this confusion.

[1] http://udadisi.blogspot.com/2014/04/can-union-survive-under-any-form-of.html

[2] The Powers to Lead, Joseph S. Nye jr, 2008.

[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_(social_and_political)

Written by zittokabwe

April 21, 2014 at 5:55 PM

Deni la Taifa: Wafaidi wachache, twalipa wote #DeniLaTaifa

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Deni la Taifa: wafaidi wachache, twalipa wote

denilataifaLeo nimeandika kuhusu Deni la Taifa kukua kwa kasi na kufikia tshs 27 trilioni mpaka Desemba 2013 kutoka tshs 10 trilioni mwaka 2005. Baadhi ya Watalaamu wanajenga hoja kuwa kukopa sio shida, bali kukopa kwa ajili ya nini. Nikakumbuka mzigo wa madeni ambao Taifa lilibeba miaka ya sabini na themanini kiasi cha Tanzania kukoswa koswa kuwa nchi ya Kwanza duniani kushindwa kuhudumia madeni yake. ‘heshima’ hiyo ilikwenda kwa nchi ya Nicaragua mwaka 1982. Mikopo ya nini?

Mwishoni mwa miaka ya sabini Tanzania ilikopa dola za kimarekani milioni sitini (USD 60m) kwa ajili ya mradi wa Kiwanda cha viatu Morogoro. Lengo la kiwanda kiwanda kile ilikuwa ni kuuza viatu nchini Italia. Mwaka mmoja baada ya kiwanda kuzinduliwa kilikuwa na uwezo wa kuzalisha kwa ufanisi wa asilimia 4 tu ya uwezo wake na hakikuweza kuuza hata jozi moja ya kiatu nje ya nchi. Miaka ya tisini kiwanda kile kiliuzwa katika mpango wa ubinafsishaji na hivi sasa kimegeuzwa kuwa ghala. Hata hivyo Deni hili lilipwa na kila Mtanzania kupitia kodi.

Kesho Jumanne tarehe 28 Januari, 2014 Kamati ya Bunge ninayoongoza ya Hesabu za Serikali (PAC) inapokea taarifa ya ukaguzi maalumu uliofanywa kuhusu Mfumo na Mchakato wa kusambaza pembejeo za ruzuku kwa wakulima. Ukaguzi huu umefanywa na Mdhibiti na Mkaguzi Mkuu wa Mahesabu ya Serikali (CAG). Nimeipitia Taarifa hii na kukumbuka habari ya ‘Morogoro Shoe Factory’.

Bajeti ya pembejeo za ruzuku ya mwaka 2011/12 ilikuwa tshs 122.4 bilioni, kati ya hizo tshs 88.9 bilioni ni mkopo kutoka Benki ya Dunia. Taarifa ya CAG inaonyesha uvundo wa ufisadi katika mfumo mzima wa pembejeo za ruzuku. Katika kijiji cha Lunyala wilayani Nkasi mkoa wa Rukwa asilimia 70 ya wananchi waliorodheshwa kupata mbolea walikuwa bandia, hata hao waliopata mbolea walidai mbolea ilikuwa haina ubora stahili na matokeo yake uzalishaji wa mazao ulikuwa mdogo. Hata hivyo wasambaji wa mbolea walilipwa fedha zao zote. Afisa mmoja mwandamizi wa Benki ya Dunia alipata nukuliwa kusema kuwa asilimia 60 ya Bajeti ya pembejeo za ruzuku iliporwa na wajanja wachache.

Deni hili nalo litalipwa na Watanzania wote japo waliofadika ni wezi wachache. Kinachosikitisha ni kwamba masuala haya yanayohusu wananchi hayapati msukumo kwenye mijadala ya kitaifa. Tusipobadilika tutajikuta tuna madeni mpaka kwenye kope za macho yetu.

…mikopo haisaidii, hata tukiitumia kujenga shule au hospitali au viwanda lazima ilipwe. Mlipaji ni mkulima wa vijijini…” Azimio la Arusha, 1967.

Written by zittokabwe

January 27, 2014 at 3:52 PM

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#TZPublicDebt: Back to #HIPC? The time to act is now.

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The debate about Tanzania’s national debt appears and disappears on the public discourse, however recently national debt became the focus of national discussion due to statements from the Controller Auditor General (CAG) and Minister of Finance. Media has also shoved this issue into the spotlight; The Citizen on Sunday of 26th January, 2014 calls it ‘a new debt dilemma’ with quotes from various opinion makers. Some of the opinion coming through this article appears or try to dispel the anxiety surrounding national debt with dismissive words and even wrong data.

Without mincing words, the issue is that Tanzania is about to face a debt crisis. And as an economist, I would like to add my voice to the national debt discussion with brief clarifications.

According to Bank of Tanzania’s monthly economic review for December 2013, national external debt was USD 13 billion and domestic debt stood at TZS 6 trillion. This makes a total public debt at TZS 27 trillion as of December 2013. Is this sustainable?

Debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio is one of the indicators used to measure sustainability. It is a gauge of what is happening with the government’s finances since GDP is a measure of the government tax base. A rising debt-GDP ratio means that the government’s indebtedness is increasing relative to its ability to raise tax revenue.

The government is always arguing that national debt is sustainable because debt-GDP ratio is around 38%. This figure was quoted by Prof. Richard Mshomba from the United States in The Citizen article mentioned above. However this ratio is not the whole truth as it is an external debt-GDP ratio. The government uses this figure as a spin and it seems to stick as a fact. It is a wrong figure as the right indicator is total debt-GDP ratio. Public debt is paid mainly through revenues from taxes: this is true for both domestic and external debt. Ignoring domestic debt in measures for debt sustainability is self-pleasing.

Actually, the government has borrowed domestically above ceiling to the tune of 1.2% of GDP and this has reduced the capacity of private sector to borrow from financial institutions and hence decrease production in industries and increase unemployment.

Tanzanian GDP stands at TZS 52 trillion at current prices as of November 2013, thus Debt-GDP ratio is already above 50% and growing. Does it matter? To answer this one has to look into our budget and we will find out that the largest budget item is that for servicing national debt. In 2013/14 the government will spend TZS 2.3 trillion on national debt account alone. The debt crisis happens when the amount of money used to service debt is much higher than budget for social services like health, water services and education.

National debt now is no longer a matter of intellectual debate, because we stand on the precipice and could possibly face a debt crisis. Without urgent intervention, Tanzania will soon be back to highly indebted poor countries (HIPC) years.

Let’s stop talking about national debt and let us as a nation TACKLE it! For that we need all hands on the deck, from all quarters.

The time to act is now.

Written by zittokabwe

January 27, 2014 at 3:12 PM

Foreign aid is not the only African story worth hearing

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Overcoming ‘The Danger of a Single Story’ to Africa’s development discourse

Zitto Kabwe

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2013/nov/01/foreign-aid-tax-africa

Foreign aid is not the only African story worth hearing

Chimamanda Adichie, the award-winning Nigerian author, has spoken of the danger of a single story. She writes from a literary perspective, but her warning also applies to talk about development in Africa.

For more than five decades, the development debate has been dominated by a single story: foreign aid. But there is another story – that of illicit financial flows.

However, this story is not rosy, nor is it popular. Information about illicit flows are kept secret and efforts to address the situation are often discouraged. And little wonder – because data shows that illicit money flowing out of the continent is double what it receives in foreign aid.

According to estimates by Global Financial Integrity, a research and advocacy organisation working to curtail illicit financial flows out of developing countries, up to $1.4tn (£870bn) was transferred from Africa over the three decades to 2009. Meanwhile, illicit flows exceeded the continent’s foreign debts. This makes Africa a net creditor to the world.

The curious case of Tanzania further underlines this story. In 2001-11, the east African country’s economy grew an average of 7% a year yet poverty declined by only 2%. The high growth reflects the country’s strengthening mining and service industries, but these have not benefited the poor.

Tax payments by multinationals have been minimal, and existing local sources of jobs, such as small-scale mining, have been suppressed for the benefit of big miners.

While Tanzania exported minerals worth $11.3bn between 2001-11, government revenues were US$440m, just below 4% of the total value of the exports. As a visiting IMF delegate remarked in 2011: “The growing mining sector has little net fiscal impact due to significant losses contributed by tax incentives abuse and structure.”

Of course, there are other challenges that hamper our development, such as corruption and the dominance of the informal economy, which accounts for an estimated 53% of GDP. However, tax evasion and avoidance are key contributors to Tanzania’s development setbacks.

The country loses 5% of its GDP to tax avoidance, 4% to tax exemptions given to multinationals, and almost 3% to evasion of customs duties. Several well-to-do Tanzanians evade tax by shifting their undeclared assets abroad. These assets are sometimes legally obtained, but usually they are acquired corruptly.

In 2012, the Swiss National Bank issued a report that showed Tanzanians held $196m in its institutions. Other unpublished reports indicate this figure could be even higher.

Last week, during an official fact-finding trip, a Swiss banker told me that while Tanzania had been complaining about Switzerland, much more Tanzanian-owned money was being held in London, Jersey, as well as the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands. These are British offshore territories, however secrecy denies us an opportunity to discover the sum being held in these jurisdictions.

Much more money is lost from Africa through tax avoidance by multinationals investing in the continent. They use legal channels to transfer their profits to low-tax areas such as Switzerland, the City of London and the Cayman Islands.

The developed world is also losing resources, through the same mechanisms that are damaging Africa. Consequently, the US and EU have pressured tax havens to share information about the fortunes hidden on their shores, and, as a result, several of the most clandestine jurisdictions, including Switzerland, are preparing to share such information.

Yet my visit to Switzerland revealed a serious problem: the increased co-operation is between, and to the benefit of, developed countries. The rest risk being left in the dark, with no access to information about the financial resources taken from our countries.

We need to change this, and this is how we can start: the developed and developing world must agree to automatic and unconditional exchange of information about tax. Global rules to ensure multinationals report on a country-by-country basis are also vital, to insist they pay the correct amount of tax in each country.

At the same time, African governments must renounce double taxation treaties, which make them surrender tax revenues to developed countries. Instead, they should insist on a global convention on such matters.

Also important is for the UK and other countries in the Open Government Partnership to create public registries of the beneficial owners of companies, trusts and foundations. We cannot talk of open government without opening offshore jurisdictions, and we cannot insist on opening up government data without also opening up the tax havens that impoverish Africa.

Africa must not continue to be a beggar of its own illicitly removed resources, which are returned as aid but with strings attached. Aid to Africa is one story; illicit flows are another, less talked about reason for the continent’s poverty.

Zitto Kabwe MP is chair of the parliamentary public accounts committee in Tanzania, as well as an economist specialising in anti-corruption and campaigner on tax justice

 

The Fear

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Over the years, I have developed a habit of going to quiet places and reflect in solitary. This has become very important to me as I critically think and evaluate my ideas. Over and over, I find myself reflecting about my country and her future direction. I reflect on development, leadership, and politics of my country.  This is mostly influenced and informed by my experience as a political leader, exposure to different places in the world, and readings. I have come to value readings and its impact on my personal development is invaluable. Previously, I used to read books that relate to politics, economics, or history. This has now changed. I have started reading novels, fictions, and philosophical books. This mixture of reading has further developed my thinking and the scope of my regular reflection.

Last week, while I was in Malaysia, I had more time to reflect. It was not easy. My reflection was haunted by fear. This fear was irresistable. Most likely, the fear was set-off by a passage I read in Tom Blake’s book titled ‘Doctor M: Operation Malaysia-Conversations with Mahathir Mohamad’. The passage, is quoted from Plato’s Republic, and it goes like this:

‘….but accepts the responsibility of ruling because he or she cares deeply about the Republic and the people in the Republic and only takes the job for fear of being ruled by a lesser’.  

This was almost a turning point for me. It triggered an urge in me. The urge of fear. It made vivid many fears that, I believe, were overlooked and disappeared back into the subconscious mind of mine.  This pumping fear on my chest overcame and deleted all the optimism I have had about my country. Previously I used to see only a rosy picture of Tanzania’s future. The fear helped me to see the reality and realised that the rosy picture was only an imagination and a wish at best.

I kept on reflecting and now the focus was on the fear. I asked myself, why fear? What is this fear about? I came up with two answers – the two fears. These fears are not mutually exclusive. They relate to each other.

Fear # 1: I fear about the leadership in my country. Plato’s Republic rightly noted the ‘fear of being ruled by a lesser’. Looking into the pool of people who position themselves to lead us in the near future was heartbreaking and scary. Not because many people are less smart or underprepared to run our country, but enormous challenges facing the country now subjects us to a thourough critical thinking about the country and developmental leadership. I fear about getting a leader who will be ‘lesser’. Lesser with regards to enormous tasks and need for wisdom to lead this big beautiful Tanzania into a prosperous future. We are faced by many challenges that can easily reduce someone to a ‘lesser’ if not wise enough. King Solomon asked for ‘wisdom to lead the great nation’. He was wise to know that the ‘big nation’ can easily make him ‘lesser’. He was not stupid but he realised that being ‘lesser’ is easy amidst challenges. We will need leaders who are ready to sit down, analyse the reality, and work hard. Leaders who would put selfish motives away and think of the nation. Who will not be influenced by party politics but people’s interests. A leader with a developmental mindset. Are Tanzanians wise enough to not choose a lesser?

Fear # 2: In connection to fear #1, the biggest challenge is abundance of natural resources Tanzania. Resources are a blessing and it is right for people to celebrate as we are doing in Tanzania.  There are hopes and politicians are doing a good job in underlining this hope. One Minister stated in the Parliament that “with the natural gas reserves Tanzania has, poverty will be history”. How I wish it was that simple! A plus and minus equation. Unfortunately the reality is opposite. There are chains of evidence that resources, due to many factors engraved within a ‘lesser’ leader, may lead to curse. This is evident in many countries of Africa that have been endowed with natural resources.

Larry Diamond and Jack Mosbacher observed that:

‘Oil booms poison the prospects for development in the poorcountries. The surge of easy money fuels inflation, fans waste and massive corruption, distorts exchange rate, undermines the compepetive of traditional export sectors such as agriculture, and preempts the growth of manufacturing.Moreover, as oil price flactuate on world markets,oil rich countries can saddenly become cash poor when booms goes bust (since poor countries rarely saves any of these revenue windfalls). Oil booms are also bad news for democracy and the rule of law. In fact, not a single developing country that derives the bulk of its export earnings from oil and gas is a democracy. Rather than fostering entrepreneurial middle class, oil wealth when controled by the governement, stifles by the emergency of an independent bussines class and swells the power of state Vs civil society.’

Similarly Paul Collier argued that:

‘…you would hope that the discovery of natural resources wealth would be a catalyst to prosperity, and sometimes it is. But these are the exceptions. Sometimes resource wealth has contributed to the conflict trap. But even if the country stays at peace it typically fails to grow; indeed, the surplus from natural resources exports significantly reduces growth. …over time, countries with large resource discoveries can end up poorer…’

In Nigeria when oil was discovered in 1970s, hoes were thrown away. Everyone looked up to oil revunues. Rents. Rents do not lead to poverty reduction. This is my fear for Tanzania. The discovery of gas and oil together with other natural resources leads us into neglecting agricultural sector even more. Agriculture is and for a long time will continue to be the backbone of our economy. Nevertheless, agricultural has been neglected. 2/3 of  us, 45 millions, are engaged in agriculture, yet we do not link it with other growing sectors of the economy, such as mining, services, and now gas and oil. This is my fear. If we do not revisit our strategy and link agriculture to our natural resources, we will not only remain poor, but get poorer.

This will need a leader who will make the challenges lesser, so he/she can be bigger.

Do you have the same fear? If so, what does it motivate you to do?

Written by zittokabwe

September 26, 2013 at 9:34 PM