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The Tanzania Natural Gas Policy Draft -1 #TZoil&gas #MEM

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Mafuta kuwa suala la Muungano tulikosea

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  • Kila upande wa Muungano uchimbe Mafuta na Gesi Asili yake na Mapato yawe ya Serikali ya upande husika.
  • Shughuli za Utafutaji kwenye vitalu vyenye mgogoro ziendelee mara moja
  • Zanzibar ianzishe Shirika lake la Mafuta (PetroZan)
  • Katiba mpya itofautishe utafutaji (upstream) na Biashara (uchimbaji, midstream na downstream)

Moja ya suala linalosubiriwa kwa hamu kubwa katika mjadala na hatimaye uandishi wa Katiba mpya ni suala la Mafuta na Gesi Asilia kuwa jambo la Muungano au liondolewe katika orodha ya mambo ya Muungano. Suala hili limezusha mjadala mkubwa sana mara kwa mara nchini Tanzania kiasi cha lenyewe kuwa ni hoja ya wale wasiotaka tuwe na Dola ya Jamhuri ya Muungano Tanzania.

Wakati Muungano unaanzishwa mwaka 1964 Mafuta na Gesi hayakuwa masuala ya Muungano. Nimeangalia katika Hati ya Muungano ambayo ilikuwa ni sehemu ya Katiba ya Muda ya Jamhuri ya Muungano ya mwaka 1965, suala hili halikuwamo katika orodha ya mambo Kumi na Moja ya Muungano. Nyaraka nilizoziona zinaonyesha kwamba suala la Mafuta na Gesi Asilia liliongezwa katika orodha ya Mambo ya Muungano mwaka 1968. Kuna watu wanahoji kihalali kabisa kwamba nyongeza ya jambo hili ilifanywa bila kufuata taratibu na hivyo kufanywa kinyemela na kuna wengine wanasema jambo hili lilifuata taratibu zote za kisheria ikiwemo kupigiwa kura na Bunge la Muungano na kuungwa mkono na theluthi mbili ya Wabunge kutoka pande zote za Muungano.

Katika moja ya vikao vya Bunge katika Bunge la Tisa, aliyekuwa Naibu wa Waziri wa Nishati na Madini Ndugu Adam Malima alileta kumbukumbu za mjadala Bungeni (Hansard) za mjadala wa suala la Mafuta na Gesi ili kuthibitisha kwamba jambo hili halikuuingizwa kwenye Katiba kinyemela.

Wakati umefika kwa Watafiti wa Masuala ya Muungano wakapekua nyaraka hizi na kutwambia ukweli ulio ukweli mtupu wa namna suala la Mafuta na Gesi lilivyoingizwa katika orodha ya mambo ya Muungano. Hata hivyo, jambo hili sasa ni jambo la Muungano kwa mujibu wa Katiba na ni dhahiri kuwa WaTanzania wa Zanzibar hawafurahiswhi nalo na hivyo kuazimia kupitia Azimio la Baraza la Wawakilishi kwamba jambo hili liondolewe kwenye orodha ya masuala ya Muungano. Kwa vyovote vile Katiba mpya ya Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania inapaswa kutoa uamuzi wa mwisho utakaomaliza mjadala huu.

Jambo la kusikitisha ni kwamba licha ya Bunge la Muungano kuamua kuongeza suala la Mafuta na Gesi asilia katika masuala ya Muungano, mwaka mmoja baada ya uamuzi huo likaundwa Shirika la Maendeleo ya Mafuta Tanzania (TPDC) kwa amri ya Rais wa Jamhuri ya Muungano (establishment order). Shirika hili halikuanzishwa kwa Sheria ya Bunge au kwa Sheria ya Makampuni kama yalivyo Mashirika mengi ya Umma hapa nchini bali kwa amri ya Rais ya mwaka 1960. Katika amri hii ya Rais, Shirika la TPDC halikupewa ‘mandate’ ya kimuungano. Shirika hili mipaka yake ilianishwa kuwa ni Tanzania bara peke yake. Hivyo suala la Muungano likawekewa Shirika la Tanganyika kulisimamia!

Kama ilikuwa ni bahati mbaya au makusudi au kupitiwa kwa viongozi wetu wa wakati huo ni vigumu kujua lakini huu ni mkanganyiko mkubwa ambao ulipaswa kurekebishwa mapema sana.

Shirika la TPDC limekuwa likifanya kazi ya kusimamia Sekta ya Mafuta na Gesi ikiwemo kutoa vibali vya kutafuta mafuta, kuingia mikataba na Makampuni ya kimataifa na kuisimamia mikataba hiyo. Miongoni mwa mikataba hiyo ni kwenye maeneo ambayo kama isingekuwa Muungano yangekuwa ni Maeneo ya Jamhuri ya Watu wa Zanzibar. Mbaya zaidi Mikataba yote ya utafutaji na uchimbaji Mafuta inafanywa inaingiwa na Waziri wa Nishati na Madini Wizara ambayo sio ya Muungano. Hakuna hata eneo moja ambalo taratibu zimewekwa kwamba pale ambapo eneo hilo ni eneo lilikuwa chini ya himaya ya Jamhuri ya Watu wa Zanzibar basi mikataba isainiwe na Mawaziri wawili wa sekta hiyo kutoka kila upande wa Muungano.

Ni dhahiri kwamba kama ni kusahau hapa kulikuwa na kusahau kukubwa ambako hakustahmiliki kwa mtu yeyote mwenye upeo achilia mbali mwananchi wa kawaida wa Zanzibar ambaye anaona anaonewa na kugandamizwa na Bara.

Mnamo miaka ya mwanzo ya 2000, Shirika la TPDC liliingia mikataba ya Vitalu kadhaa vya Mafuta miongoni vya vitalu hivyo ni vitalu nambari 9, 10, 11 na 12 mashariki ya visiwa vya Pemba na Unguja. Vile vile Shirika na Wizara ya Nishati waliingia mkataba mwingine katika Kitalu kilichopo kati ya Pemba na Tanga (mahala ambapo kumekuwa na dalili za wazi za kuwapo Mafuta kutokana na kuonekana kwa ‘Oil sips’ mara kwa mara.

Vitalu 9, 10, 11 na 12 vilipewa kampuni ya Shell ya Uholanzi na kitalu cha kati ya Tanga na Pemba walipewa Kampuni ya Antrim ya Canada ambayo baadaye waliuza sehemu ya Kampuni yao kwa Kampuni ya RAK Gas kutoka Ras Al Khaimah huko United Aarab Emirates. Kwa kuwa Vitalu hivi vipo katika eneo la iliyokuwa Jamhuri ya Watu wa Zanzibar kabla ya Muungano, Serikali ya Mapinduzi Zanzibar ilikataa shughuli zozote kufanyika mpaka suala la Mafuta na Gesi kuondolewa katika orodha ya Mambo ya Muungano lipatiwe ufumbuzi.

Uamuzi huu wa Serikali ya Zanzibar ni uamuzi ambao ungechukuliwa na Serikali yeyote ile yenye mapenzi ya dhati na watu wake. Uamuzi huu ulileta mjadala mpana sana katika masuala ya Muungano na ambao hawana taarifa waliubeza sana. Hata hivyo suala hili likafanywa ajenda katika vikao vya masuala ya Muungano vinavyoitwa Vikao vya Kero za Muungano. Miaka kumi suala hili linajadiliwa na Maamuzi hayafanyiki! Hivi sasa kila suala lenye kuangukia kwenye Katiba husukumwa huko na hivyo kutoa ahueni kwa wanaogopa kufanya maamuzi.

Katika medani za uchumi kila suala lina muda wake. Masuala ya utafutaji wa Mafuta ni masuala yanayoongozwa na msimu na kuendelea kuchelewa kufanya maamuzi juu ya suala hili kunalitia hasara Taifa, Hasara ya Mabilioni ya Fedha na hasara kubwa zaidi ya kufahamu utajiri uliojificha chini ya Maji ya Bahari inayozunguka Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania.

Hivi sasa Pwani ya Afrika Mashariki inarindima (trending) katika utafutaji wa Mafuta na Gesi asilia. Huko Msumbiji Makampuni mbalimbali yamegundua Gesi asilia nyingi inayofikia zaidi ya futi za ujazo trillion 107 (107TCF) kwa makadirio ya chini. Hapa Tanzania utajiri wa Gesi asilia uliogunduliwa hadi hivi sasa na kutangazwa umefikia futi za ujazo trillion 20 (20TCF) ambazo ni sawa na utajiri wa thamani ya dola za kimarekani trillion 6. Makadirio yanakisiwa kuwa Tanzania kuna  futi za ujazo trillioni 85 (85TCF) za Gesi Asilia katika eneo la Kusini kuanzia vitalu namba 1 mpaka namba 5 ikiwemo vitalu vya nchi kavu na vile vya Songosongo.

Iwapo kasi ya utafutaji mafuta itaendelea kama sasa katika kipindi cha miaka 2 ijayo Tanzania itaweza kuwa kati ya nchi mbili za Afrika zenye Utajiri mwingi zaidi wa Gesi Asilia. Hivi sasa Nigeria ndio inaongoza kwa kuwa na futi za ujazo trillion 189 (189TCF) ikifuatiwa na Algeria na Angola ambazo zote zina utajiri wa juu kidogo ya 100TCF kwa Algeria na chini ya 100TCF kwa Angola. Msumbiji sasa imeifikia Algeria na kushika nafasi ya pili.

Katika masuala ya Mafuta na Gesi hatua ya kwanza ni kujua kama utajiri huu ambayo kitaalamu inaitwa gas exploration. Shughuli za utafutaji zinapandisha sana thamani ya nchi na eneo la nchi. Kwa mfano hivi sasa kitendo cha Kampuni ya Uingereza ya BG/Ophir na ile ya Norway ya StatOil kupata mafanikio makubwa katika utafutaji wa Gesi asilia kumeongeza thamani ya Pwani ya kusini ya Tanzania katika medani za utafutaji (Exploration Activities).

Hata hivyo kama ilivyogusiwa hapo juu, shughuli za Utafutaji ni shughuli za msimu. Pia huchukua muda mrefu wa kati ya miaka 5 mpaka 10 kati ya kutafuta, kupata na kuanza kuchimba. Hivi sasa ni muda wa pwani ya Afrika Mashariki. Ni lazima kuhakikisha kwamba vitalu vyote vilivyogawiwa hivi sasa vinafanyiwa kazi. Hata hivyo vitalu vingine vyovyote visigawiwe kwanza mpaka hapo matunda ya vitalu vya sasa yaonekane. Kamati ya Bunge ya Nishati na Madini imependekeza kusimamisha kugawa vitalu vipya. Matokeo ya utafutaji katika vitalu vya sasa yakiwa mazuri kama ilivyo sasa, thamani ya vitalu vipya itapanda sana na nchi itakuwa na nguvu ya majadiliano (strong negotiation position) dhidi ya makampuni makubwa ya mafuta. 

Tufanyaje kuhusu vitalu vilivyogawiwa katika eneo ambalo lina mgogoro kuhusu suala la Muungano? Sio kazi rahisi lakini imefikia wakati tuamue. Kwa kadri nionavyo, Itabidi kuwe na maamuzi ya mpito (interim decisions) na maamuzi ya muda mrefu.

Kwanza, ni lazima kukiri tulipokosea. Hata kama ilikuwa ni sahihi kiutaratibu kuweka suala la mafuta na Gesi katika orodha ya mambo ya Muungano, haikuwa halali Shirika la TPDC lenye mipaka ndani ya Tanzania bara kuingilia ugawaji wa vitalu na kuingia mikataba katika maeneo ambayo ni ya Muungano. Ni Taasisi ya Muungano tu ndio inaweza kushughulikia suala la Muungano na sio vinginevyo.

Ilikuwa ni dharau kubwa sana kwa Waziri wa Nishati ambayo sio Wizara ya Muungano kuingia Mikataba katika eneo la Zanzibar (ambapo kikatiba tumelifanya eneo la Muungano) bila kushauriana na kukubaliana na Waziri wa Nishati wa Zanzibar. Kukiri kosa sio unyonge, ni uungwana. Hata tukifanya vikao milioni moja chini ya Makamu wa Rais, bila kukiri kosa hili tatizo hili na mengine ya aina hii hayataisha.

Pili, ni vema kukubali kwamba shughuli za utafutaji katika vitalu vyenye mgogoro ziendelee kwenye hatua ya utafutaji tu. Kama mafuta au Gesi ikipatikana, uchimbaji usianze mpaka uamuzi wa mwisho kuhusu suala hili uwe umepatikana. Pia ninapendekeza ufumbuzi wa mwisho hapa chini. Kuchelewesha utafutaji ni hasara kwa pande zote za Muungano kutokana na taarifa za kijiolojia zitakazopatikana na hivyo kupandisha thamani ya nchi hizi mbili kijiolojia.

Hata hivyo, utafutaji huu katika eneo lenye mgogoro kati ya pande mbili za Muungano ufanyike baada ya mkataba wa PSA kufanyiwa marekebisho makubwa. Marekebisho hayo ni pamoja na Mkataba kusema wazi kwamba shughuli za uchimbaji zitafanyika iwapo tu makubaliano ya kugawana mapato ya Mafuta na Gesi kati ya Serikali ya Muungano na Serikali ya Zanzibar yamefikiwa. Pia Mkataba uzingatie maendeleo ya sasa ya kusini mwa Tanzania na hivyo mkataba uboreshwe kwa faida ya nchi ikiwemo kutolewa kwa ‘signature bonus’. Hii ni Fedha inayotolewa na Kampuni za utafutaji Mafuta kwa Serikali kabla ya utafutaji kuanza. Kiwango hutokana na majadiliano na kukubaliana. Nchi zenye jiolojia iliyopevuka hutumia njia hii kuongeza mapato ya Serikali.

Mkataba pia useme kinaga ubaga kwamba utasainiwa na Mawaziri wa pande mbili za Muungano na kwamba Kampuni inayofanya utafiti itatoa taarifa zake za Utafiti sawia kwa Mawaziri wote kwa mujibu wa vipengele vya mkataba.

Kwa upande wa maamuzi ya muda mrefu, ushauri wangu ni kwamba; kwa maana ya kuandikwa kwenye Katiba mpya ni kwamba Suala la Mafuta na Gesi Asilia liendelee kuwa suala la Muungano kwenye eneo la usimamizi wa Tasnia na leseni za utafutaji (Upstream Regulatory mechanism). Hili ni eneo linalohitaji usimamizi wa dhati kabisa na kwa pamoja pande mbili za Muungano zinaweza kufanya vizuri zaidi.

Eneo la Uchimbaji na hasa kugawana mapato ya mafuta na Gesi (Profit Oil) lisimamiwe na kila upande wa Muungano kivyake. Biashara ya Mafuta isiwe jambo la Muungano na hivyo kila Upande wa Muungano uwe na Shirika lake la Mafuta na Gesi ambalo litashiriki kama mbia wa Mashirika ya Kimataifa katika uchimbaji, usafirishaji na uuzaji wa Mafuta na Gesi Asilia. Mapato yanayotokana na Mafuta (Profit Oil) na kodi nyingine zote isipokuwa mrahaba (royalty) yawe ni masuala yanayoshughulikiwa na Serikali ya kila upande wa Muungano kwa mujibu wa Sheria ambayo Serikali hizo zimejiwekea.

Kamati ya Bunge ya Hesabu za Mashirika ya Umma ilipendekeza Bungeni kwamba kuwepo na Mamlaka ya Mafuta na Gesi Asilia Tanzania (Tanzania Petroleum Authority) ambayo itakuwa ni msimamizi (upstream regulator) kama suala la Muungano. Mrahaba wa Mafuta na Gesi ambao sasa ni asilimia 12 ya Mapato ya Mafuta itakusanywa na Msimamizi huyu na ndio mapato pekee katika tasnia ya Mafuta na Gesi yanapaswa kuwa mapato ya Serikali ya Muungano.

Kamati pia ilipendekeza kuanzishwa kwa Shirika la Mafuta na Gesi (Petroleum Tanzania – PetroTan) ambalo litakuwa mbia kwenye Makampuni ya utafutaji na uchimbaji wa Mafuta na Gesi kwenye Vitalu vya Tanzania bara. Mapato yote ya vitalu vya Tanzania bara na kodi zote isipokuwa Mrahaba zitakwenda kwa Mamlaka za bara tutakazo kuwa tumeamua baada ya Katiba mpya kuanza kazi. Hivi sasa TPDC inafanya kazi hii mpaka Zanzibar jambo ambalo hata kwa akili ya kawaida halipaswi kukubalika.

Aidha, napendekeza kwamba Zanzibar ianzishe Shirika lake la Mafuta sasa. Jambo hili halina haja ya kusubiri vikao vya kero za Muungano kwani ni dhahiri TPDC haina mamlaka,ushawishi na uthubutu kusema uhalali wa kusimamia vitalu vya Mafuta vilivyopo  Zanzibar.

Serikali ya Mapinduzi ya Zanzibar ipeleke muswada katika Baraza la Wawakilishi kuanzisha Shirika la Mafuta na Gesi la Zanzibar (Petroleum Corporation of Zanzibar – PetroZan) ili liweze kushiriki katika utafutaji na uchimbaji wa Mafuta Zanzibar. Lakini Pia PetroZan ilinde maslahi ya Zanzibar katika tasnia hii kwa kujijengea uwezo wa kusimamia ugawaji bora wa Mapato kutoka katika Mafuta na Gesi Asilia.

Kama Serikali ya Mapinduzi Zanzibar inachelea kuanzishwa kwa Shirika hili, Wawakilishi wa pande zote (CCM na CUF) wapeleke muswada binafsi kuunda Shirika la Mafuta la Wazanzibari. Hawatakuwa wamevunja Katiba ya Muungano kwani hivi sasa hakuna Taasisi yenye mamlaka ya kusimamia Tasnia hii kwa Upande wa Zanzibar.

Wakati haya yote yanafanyika, shughuli za utafutaji Mafuta na Gesi katika vitalu vilivyopo katika eneo la Zanzibar na hasa vitalu namba 9,10,11 na 12 na katika kitalu cha kati ya Pemba na Tanga ziendelee kufuatia marekebisho ya Mkataba wa Utafutaji. Utafutaji wa Mafuta una faida zaidi kwa Nchi hizi mbili kuliko kwa Kampuni za Mafuta kwani uwekezaji wa Kampuni pekee na nchi zitapata taarifa za kijiolojia zitakazosaidia mikataba ya baadaye kuwa bora zaidi.

Wakati nasisitiza kwamba tuendelee na utafutaji katika vitalu tajwa, katika Katiba mpya, utafutaji wa mafuta usimamiwe na Taasisi ya Muungano. Uchimbaji na biashara ya Mafuta ufanywe na kila Serikali ya kila upande wa Muungano. Mafuta kuwa jambo la Muungano halafu kusimamiwa na Shirika la Tanganyika na Wizara ya Upande mmoja ya Muungano ndio chanzo cha mgogoro. Suluhisho sio kuifanya TPDC kuwa Shirika la Muungano, bali kila upande upewe uhuru wa kusimamia uchimbaji, Biashara na mlolongo mzima wa tasnia ya Mafuta (value chain from midstream to downstream) isipokuwa utafutaji (upstream). Hili ndio suluhisho la kudumu ninaloona linafaa. 

Uwazi (declaration):

Zitto Kabwe ni Mbunge wa Kigoma Kaskazini na mfuatiliaji wa karibu wa Tasnia ya Mafuta na Gesi Asilia akiwa amesomea mfumo wa uchumi wa katika tasnia ya madini na mafuta (fiscal regime in Mineral and Petroleum sector).  Zitto pia ni Mwenyekiti wa Kamati ya Bunge ya Hesabu za Mashirika ya Umma ambayo inasimamia mahesabu na utendaji wa Shirika la TPDC. Makala hii imeandikwa baada ya ziara ya Mafunzo ya Wabunge kutembelea nchi ya Uholanzi kwa ufadhili wa Wizara ya Mambo ya Nje ya nchi hiyo. Katika ziara hiyo Wabunge hao walikutana na Wakuu wa Shirika la Mafuta la Shell ambapo walizungumzia pia suala la vitalu namba 9, 10, 11 na 12.

Tanzania has postponed its fourth deep-offshore bidding round to 2012

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Official TPDC Announcement

The Government of the United Republic of Tanzania through the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation regrets to announce the postponement of 4th deep offshore bidding round.The round was planned to be launched in April 2011.
This round will now take place in year 2012. The round has been postponed to give more time for preparations. This will include proper demarcation of new blocks using additional new seismic data

Source: TPDC

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Tanzania has postponed its fourth deep-offshore bidding round to 2012

KAMPALA, Uganda (Dow Jones)–Tanzania has postponed its fourth deep-offshore bidding round to 2012, state oil company Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp. said Monday.

The bidding round was to be opened April 12, and was expected to include 13 blocks sitting between 1,200 meters and 3,500 meters of water depth.

“The round has been postponed to give more time for preparations,”

TPDC said in a statement. “This will include proper demarcation of new blocks using additional new seismic.”

TPDC didn’t specify the exact date of the new round. Currently, Tanzania has licensed 12 deepwater blocks and recent exploration works have encountered at least 7.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The country is yet to discover commercial oil reserves.

Sebastian Shana, TPDC’s principal petroleum geologist, said at least 13 new blocks have been demarcated, including new areas and relinquished acreage.

Geologists believe that Tanzanian oil and gas exploration areas share similar geological properties with Uganda’s Lake Albertine Rift basin, where around 1 billion barrels of oil reserves have been discovered.

Exploration companies already licensed in Tanzania include Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s (RDSB) local subsidiary Shell International, Orca Exploration Group Inc. (ORC.B.V), Dominion Gas and Oil Ltd., Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) and Tower Resources PLC (TRP.LN).

-By Nicholas Bariyo, contributing to Dow Jones Newswires;

256-75-2624615 bariyonic@yahoo.co.uk

Source: Dow Jones Newswires

Written by zittokabwe

April 11, 2011 at 2:57 PM

Restructuring Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC)

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Mapendekezo ya Kamati ya POAC

Ilipendekezwa kuwa Shirika la maendeleo ya Petroli Tanzania (TPDC ) ligawanywe ili kupata Mashirika mawili ya Umma  moja likisimamia utoaji wa leseni na Udhibiti wa Uchimbaji (upstream regulator) (Tanzania Petroleum Authority or National Hydrocarbons Authority) na lingine kuwa Kampuni ya kibiashara ya Mafuta na Gesi (National Oil and Gas Company) ambapo kila sehemu ya Muungano itakuwa na  Kampuni yake na kuondoa malalamiko ya sasa juu ya Mafuta na Gesi. Pendekezo hili Serikali haijalitolea majibu wala utaratibu wa kulitekeleza ili kuboresha usimamizi wa sekta ya Gesi na Mafuta.

Vile vile Pendekezo hili litaweka msingi wa Sekta ya Mafuta na Gesi kusimamiwa na chombo cha muungano badala ya sasa ambapo kinasimamiwa na TPDC ambayo sio Shirika la Muungano. Pendekezo hili litekelezwe mara moja.- POAC Report 2010

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Interesting Articles from Africa Confidential :

Tanzania’s gas players

Songas consortium consists of PanAfrican Energy Limited, a subsidiary of Orca Exploration, CDC Globeleq and the state-owned Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC). Songas has operational rights over the Songo Songo-Dar es Salaam pipeline and well-established relationships with the government. Despite approaching new competition, it is keen to lock in the monopoly benefits it has enjoyed to date – hence its application for a 70% tariff increase for gas supplied to the Tanzania Electric Supply Company (Tanesco).

Maurel & Prom operates the Mnazi Bay field, hoping to supply a power plant at Mtwara and a newly announced fertiliser operation. With clear direction from the government, it could transform Mtwara and its own profits. No guidance is yet forthcoming. Both Maurel & Prom and Songas will face stiff competition if Britain’s Ophir Energy-BG Group and Petrobras develop their gas fields. The latter two have considerable acreage while the companies already in place have two discoveries. Both groups will be eyeing up the neighbouring exploration blocks on offer in the new round of bidding in April. The newcomers’ operations are likely to dwarf the existing ones. They see their main business opportunity in liquefied natural gas for export rather than for local markets.

A key figure will be David Jairo, Permanent Secretary at the Energy and Minerals Ministry, who is close to President Jakaya Kikwete having served as his Private Secretary. In the early 1990s, he was also in the Ministry of Water, Energy and Minerals, as it was then known, when Kikwete held the portfolio. He will be important in mediating among institutions, business and politicians. While Zitto Kabwe and January Makamba are putting energy at the top of their political agendas, more important in coming years will be whether Edward Lowassa wins 2015’s presidential election. If past performance is anything to go by, he could have an unfortunate impact on energy policy.

Gas finds offer hope of ending power-cuts
Powerful interests stood in the way of a sound energy policy emerging but everyone wants to turn on the gas
Despite obstacles from corrupt politicians, the exploitation of gas is likely to gather pace this year with new offshore discoveries. The opening on 12 April of the fourth offshore bidding round for 13 new blocks is likely to coincide with the commencement of drilling by Brazil’s Petrobras. Just one overworked pipeline runs the 200 kilometres from Songo Songo Island to Dar es Salaam. Last year’s gas discoveries by Ophir and British Gas in Tanzanian waters and this year’s by Anadarko in Mozambique, along with high fuel prices, will also help to generate interest in new export pipelines, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and much delayed gas-fired electricity generation.

However, Tanzania’s two existing gas deposits are not fully utilised. The oldest operation is the Songo Songo field, now operated by PanAfrican Energy Limited, a subsidiary of the Toronto-listed Orca Exploration Group. As part of the Songas consortium, it supplies gas to Dar es Salaam’s Ubungo power plant as well as to over 30 industrial facilities in the city.

Further south, the Mnazi Bay field near Mtwara town, now run by Maurel & Prom, is operating greatly below capacity since the collapse of plans to build a 300-megawatt power plant involving the gold mining companies Barrick and Artumas, the previous operators of Mnazi Bay. Three of the four Mnazi Bay wells are capped and the fourth is operating at just 10% of capacity. However, China is discussing financing that could revive plans for the plant at Mtwara, and Songas and Maurel & Prom hope to benefit from plans by the national electricity utility, Tanzania Electric Supply Company (Tanesco), for Dar es Salaam’s Kinyerezi plant to start generation in 2013.

Tanzania also has substantial coal reserves. Investors in gas fields cannot be certain that gas-generated power plants will necessarily be built and thus provide them with a market in the long run. Two feasibility studies will be carried out for a pipeline to Mombasa, one by Orca-owned EastCoast Transmission and Marketing, one by the East African Community. Ophir and BG are pinning their hopes on the development of LNG facilities.

The challenges are considerable. The power sector has been mismanaged for over 20 years. Power-rationing, first resorted to in the early nineties, is now a fact of daily life. The government first said it wanted to increase the use of natural gas in the 1990s but plans were thwarted by the corruption of key politicians and officials tied to Western companies exporting generating equipment that was not fuelled by gas. Also central has been the quick fix of hastily arranged power-purchases. Consequently, the power sector remains hamstrung and both the Dowans and IPTL generators are idle because of contractual disputes with Tanesco.

Many of those linked to the well-known cases of corruption in the power sector are still in or near to the corridors of power. Andrew Chenge was Attorney General when he approved the IPTL contract and he still sits on the Central Committee of the governing Chama cha Mapinduzi and in Parliament (AC Vol 51 No 4). Former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa, who resigned following revelations of his central role in the Richmond-Dowans affair, now chairs the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs, Defence and Security Committee and is believed to be preparing for a bid for the presidency in 2015.

One long-serving energy sector observer has also noted the tension between the Ministry of Energy and Minerals, Tanesco and the National Development Corporation. The NDC is responsible for state mining interests and is actively seeking investors in coal and wind power. NDC remains a key broker and has struck deals in China for the Mchuchuma coal mine as well as for wind in Singida Region. Yet another monolithic state institution in the power mix is unlikely to help to improve planning.

Regulation is also an issue. The Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation has roles as both the regulator of upstream operations and as the state oil company and ultimate rights holder, which creates confusion and conflicts of interest. Legislation in the sector is outmoded, dating from 1980. A Natural Gas Bill has been in the works for some years but has been delayed by turf wars between fuel importers, TPDC, Parliament and Ministry officials. TPDC is looking to hive off an independent gas distribution entity and maintain its regulatory and operational roles. Industry interests want price control taken away from the Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority. Moreover, there is pressure from Parliament to split TPDC and to have one upstream regulatory body and two state-owned oil companies, one each for Zanzibar and the mainland. The principal political backer for this is an opposition member of parliament, Zitto Kabwe, Chairman of the Parliamentary Public Investments Committee.

The lack of clarity in regulation, oversight and planning gives the advantage to companies already present and people with political connections. The Songas consortium and Orca’s PanAfrican Energy have considerable influence on pricing and infrastructure management. The senior management of these companies also has important personal and professional relationships with key players in government. Orca Deputy General Manager William Chiume is the son of the late Kanyama Chiume, an exiled Malawian politician resident in Tanzania and a confidant of former Presidents Julius Nyerere and Benjamin Mkapa. William Chiume also has President Kikwete’s ear.

Two politicians hope for political success through staking out development in the energy sector as their territory: Kabwe, of the opposition Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo, and CCM’s newly elected MP, January Makamba. Kabwe chairs the Public Investments Committee and is seeking restructuring of TPDC and the directing of public funds to the power sector.

Makamba is a son of CCM party Chairman Yussuf Makamba and a former aide to Kikwete. Articulate and energetic, he is building alliances with the private sector as well as oil and gas investors with a view to achieving quick gains – such as switching on the Dowans generators, which cannot be used because of court orders – and medium-term infrastructure development, such as investment in the Songas-operated Songo Songo-to-Dar pipeline.

Kabwe and non-governmental organisations have also taken considerable interest in mining. Yet populist measures on royalties and taxation, as well as the absence of any major new ventures in the sector since 2007, have seen this interest diminish. The recently released Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative report for Tanzania covered TPDC, Songas and Maurel & Prom among other mining companies but it is unlikely to lead to the broad popular and political interest that mining evinced since it has not yet been verified and its conclusions are not clear. Consumers can only hope that the new gas finds will lead to lower prices and more capacity – despite the obstacles.

Source: Africa Confidential