Zitto na Demokrasia

Zitto na Demokrasia

Developmental Ethiopia surges forward. ‘Democratic’ Tanzania lags behind. Rethinking @jmkikwete @PMMelesZenawi @PaulKagame

with 9 comments

Ethiopia Growth and Transformation Plan

Ethiopia is trending. The AfricaReport of May 2012 had Meles Zenawi on its cover page with the heading ‘The rise and rise of Ethiopia’. NewAfrican of the same month had Special Report on Ethiopia with an article ‘from bankrupt to middle-income’ and The Economist had, on its Finance and Economics section, a balanced article on ‘investing in Ethiopia’. Of course the World Economic Forum Africa took place in Addis Ababa so the coverage of the country was expected. Tanzania hosted the same and the content of the coverage was not as trending as Ethiopia though.

Both countries are comparable in some key areas. Ethiopia will have largest population in Africa after Nigeria in the year 2050 with 174 million people. Tanzania will be the fourth most populous country in Africa with 109 million inhabitants.

Ethiopia will be the third biggest Economy in Africa South of Sahara in 15 years (as per estimates by Standard Chartered) with GDP of USD 472bn. Tanzania will be sixth biggest economy with GDP of less than USD 150bn trailing Kenya. But Ethiopian GDP will not be sourced from natural gas but Agriculture and manufacturing which have stronger linkages within different sectors of the economy.

Both Tanzania and Ethiopia have developed their economic Blueprints. The Ethiopian one is called the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) while in Tanzanian we have the Five Years Development Plan (FYDP). Reading the contents of both plans motivated this brief article.

From the Ethiopian GTP one sees ambition and well thought blueprint contrary to our Tanzanian one which is not as inspiring as it is supposed to be and seems to be relatively a collection of projects ie a wish list. Take an example of Power sector.

Ethiopia is expected to increase electricity generation fivefold in five years to 10,000MW. They have a USD 5bnGrand Millenium Dam as a national flagship project. Tanzania plans to generate less than 3000MW of electricity (2780MW) by 2015 and without any major national flagship project. Some would argue the Gas pipeline from Mtwara to Dar es Salaam to be one but The Five Years Development Plan does not include the gas pipeline. This is evidence of the ad hoc tendency in our Tanzanian planning. Taking an example following the emergency power plan, the pipeline idea propped up and was adopted.

While in Ethiopia all Public Entreprises are involved in Planning, here in Tanzania planning is poorly coordinated. There is no policy to guide Public Enterprises role in national development. In Tanzania for instance a point I have made time and time again some Public Enterprises would play a very significant role in the energy sector.

Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan clearly defines infrastructure targets and  social targets. One of the strategic investments done by private sector (from China) is the women’s shoes manufacturing factory by Huajian Group. With this factory, Ethiopia will be exporting USD 4bn worth of footwear every year. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi banned exports of raw hides and skin and insisted on value addition within the country to create jobs and increase value of the exported products. Contrary in Tanzania leather industry is dying as traders export raw hides and skin to countries like Pakistan and Vietnam. Tanzania’s plan lacks innovative ideas like this and sector targeting is not well articulated.

And this builds on an already existing Ethiopian shoe industry. Walk through Addis Ababa’s Piazza shopping district and you cannot miss the shops selling Ethiopian made shoes targeting a local market.

The Budget for implementation our economic blueprint is TZS 43.7 trillion as a quote from the plan shows;

“In order to fulfil the activities outlined in the priority areas, the Plan identifies a range of strategic activities, the responsible organs and the cost of implementation amounting approximately to TZS 43.7 trillion over the next five years; an average of TZS 8.7 trillion per annum exclusive of recurrent budget, of which TZS 2.7 trillion will have to be mobilized annually by the Government.”

Forecasts for 2012/2013 budget shows relatively no money for implementation of the Plan. Spending cuts badly undermine implementation of the plan as less than TZS 2 trillion has been set aside for 2012/2013 Budget. Again the role of private sector (local and foreign) as well as Public Enterprises in implementation of the Plan is vague.

As for the Ethiopians, the government and public enterprises will spend USD 71.7 Billion over a period of five years and spending is in order. The Plan is being implemented. From Ethiopia one sees thinking, sequencing and focus. Money follows the Plan. The Leadership has ambition and pragmatism.

On another angle, Tanzania is more open and democratic; leadership allowing dissent and press is free. Regardless of positive democratic credentials Tanzania lags behind in efforts to end poverty. The paradox of a fast growing economy without cutting poverty (growing economy with increasing poverty and inequality) still puzzles Tanzanian policy analysts. Is it enough having flourishing democracy with people deeply impoverished?

The linkages between Democracy and Development has been a debate and is still a huge and sometimes controversial debate. Malaysia and Singapore as well as China are always pointed out as countries which embraced little or no democracy and uplifted their people from poverty. Ethiopian leadership strongly argues for a developmental state and less emphasis on democracy. Ethiopia is trending now and things are not only happening but seen to be happening. Meles Zenawi strongly argue for a Developmental State Model. Tanzania should add ‘democratic’ before the other D word.  Is time for a democratic developmental state as a model for Tanzania?

9 Responses

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  1. I wish that plan of our fellow Ethiopian could be brought here in Tanzania and being implimented it going to have a huge impact in our country . Thanks Mh. Zitto for showing us what our fellow have plan to do.

    Peter

    May 29, 2012 at 12:28 PM

    • It good that we get an opportunity to compare between two Development plans,the Tanzania Plan and that of our coleague Ethiopia. It had been noted, sometimes backwards, that Tanzania had very good plans, but it lacked was implementation strategies. Now, as you have distinguished, that Tanzania is not only failing to implement plans but also planning.
      To my notion, this highlights two important things. It may be we do not good economists due our poor education system or we are appointing weaker economists due inferiority of the appointing authorities.

      a

      May 29, 2012 at 3:43 PM

  2. Shukran sana kwa andiko lako ndugu Zitto,linapanua uelewa na kutupa upanuzi zaidi wa fikra ktk dhana nzima ya demokrasia na uchumi.

    Mola akuwezeshe zaidi.

    Seif Abalhassan

    May 29, 2012 at 12:44 PM

  3. Kaka ni mawazo mazuri sana, umesema ila kitu nilichokiona kuhusu Tanzania ni madhara ya hiyo demokrasi ya maneno isiyo ya vitendo. Kinachotuangusha Watanzania ni kutokuwa na nidhamu, na kwa mtazamo wangu nidhamu haiendi bila ya mjeledi. Tulikosa bahati kutokutawaliwa kijeshi. Nimeona Ghana pamoja na demokrasia tunayoiona imekomaa huko, nidhamu kubwa imetawala ambayo haikupatikana wakati wa demokrasia hii bali wakati wa utawala wa kijeshi chini ya Rawlings. Ethiopia hali kadhalika, Zenawi ana mkono wa chuma kwa kiasi fulani hali inayochangia nidhamu ya maendeleo. Hali ni sawa pia kwa majirani zetu wa Rwanda chini ya Kagame. Ni ajabu sana kuona katika Tanzania ndio hakuna kufuata sheria hata za barabarani au za mji, kuanzia raia wa kawaida hadi viongozi wa serikali. Siamini kwa mfumo wetu tulio nao wa nidhamu nyuma, kelele na mdomo mbele tutafika mahali.

    Rashid Magorwa

    May 29, 2012 at 1:19 PM

  4. It is true that democracy and development are comparable and the actual means to development concurwith the check and balance of power,genuine constitution,and super accauntable leaders.The only problem with Tanzania leaders esp.CCMs dont have phenomenology psychology ,they have eat and perish theory.

    justin mabele

    May 29, 2012 at 1:46 PM

  5. democracy & development yes it’s true are compatible, but situations of Ethiopia Vs Tanzania i think the system os governance its were i can see quite are incompatibility; how? you may have no democracy but they have good governance good one; and hence since they do have, they know what they should do, and what they are required to do to meet people’s needs, why? because they do have ambitions, is very important. now in our case Tanzania it have this disease for so long time and the government is even seem to be insensitive…for me i see they are just there for their own interests and not do and solve problems of the nation, why because they have no ambitions for the nation when the youngster which is the large population in the country end up with non. so i think THEY need to be peeled off completely. by inputting a new system in power which demanded by people for the people the — i think we can create our own mode both should be equal!

    4kbj

    May 29, 2012 at 4:20 PM

  6. Thanks bro.for opens up minds! Tz we can archieve the same as our neighbours,but the probl.is poor leadership,lead by the ruling party! All nation funds are channeled into unnesessary elec tions whch are non benefitable!! Finaly we lack money to invest into dvl.projects like that!

    Mtafurwa,p

    May 29, 2012 at 8:20 PM

  7. Hongera sana kwa kuchimbua mambo yanayolinganisha mipango “yetu” na wengine. Ila kuna kitu ambacho watendaji hasa katika sekta za UMMA hatukioni UZALENDO na ufanyaji kazi kwa maslahi ya UMMA. Huu ni mfumo na utamaduni ambao umejengwa kama ambavyo uchumi na mipango unavyojengwa. Hivi wako wapi wale ambao wanadai wamesoma (WASOMI) katika Tanzania na wameifanyia nini TANZANIA au ni TANZIA badala yake? Nchi nyingi zilizokuwa makoloni walijenga misingi ya kiuchumi miaka ishirini ya mwanzo na vizazi vilivyofuata vikafaidi matuda sisi ni kinyume chake.Tutafakari namna gani tutabadili “mind set” kutoka katika kujenga chuki, kuipenda nchi kwa kufanya kazi kwa bidii na kupunguza kulalama na uhujumu twendeni kwa mfano huko Ethiopia tukaone watu wanavyofanya kazi wakati sisi kwetu dharura chungu mzima, ufisadi maofisini, majungu, ukabila, na upendeleo ndiyo kanuni zetu za kufanya kazi. Acheni historia ituhukumu.

    Sikaji Jikasi

    May 31, 2012 at 3:31 AM

    • Yes,true, our economy just as black dog which is eat and run b/cose there is no reasonable economic plans that could eradicate poverty that we have. Nowadays every political leader can talk and act whatever they can fear/worry. All economic plans are just for benefiting themselves instead of normal and poor citizens and if CCM will continue to hold the country, sure never wait good life and true development, b/cose ccm is the leading corruption party, so now we need changes.

      Lukindo abdul

      June 5, 2012 at 4:11 PM


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